Tuesday, October 6, 2009

Surfline's Fall/Winter Western Atlantic Outlook

US East Coast
The storm track during moderate El Niño events is typically from southeastern US towards the Canadian Maritimes. This is favorable for breaks in the Mid Atlantic and Northeast regions, where we may see a return of the nor'easter as opposed to the repeating S windswell events we saw last winter when the primarily storm track was inland over the Great Lakes.

Also, for the snowboarders out there, recent research suggest an increase in the frequency of occurrence of heavy snowfall events for the northeastern US, associated with the increased EC storm track during an El Niño episode.

The east coast of Florida is hit or miss depending on the storm track for each specific system - a favorably placed nor'easter can send down quality N/NE swells or we may watching out for the notorious 'NW windswell' events for the South FL region.

Caribbean
With the jet stream and associated storm track at a lower latitude during an El Niño event, we typically see low pressure systems track northward along/just offshore of the US East Coast. Gusty NW winds behind these exiting systems means the Caribbean region will generally see a rather consistent run of NW swells. As a result, the cards are lining up for this to be a good winter for the breaks in the Caribbean that like NW swell.

In conclusion, it appears this winter has the potential to be a good one for spots across the western half of the Atlantic basin. Keep an eye on the forecasts as we'll certainly dial you into and help you score the best surf conditions possible wherever you may be.

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